tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907702537884089718.post7504738240751949766..comments2018-01-14T06:04:43.269-08:00Comments on Exit 10A: $167.36 On the NoseJoe Schwartznoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907702537884089718.post-68615434794571555582017-06-16T03:00:49.511-07:002017-06-16T03:00:49.511-07:00We ask for too lows and too highs as well. I see...We ask for too lows and too highs as well. I see that as being what Michael is calling the "I'm 100% confident that the bowl is worth between...". I like that way of explaining a too low and too high. But let's say the gumball estimate was 82. You might say instead, "Between 80 and 90." That's different to me then a too low and too high.<br /> What I'm thinking now is that I've been working with estimation180 for a long time, but I still have lots to learn!Joe Schwartzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02304083254248927187noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907702537884089718.post-43885494427119221842017-06-15T06:08:37.936-07:002017-06-15T06:08:37.936-07:00I imitate Dan a lot. After the estimate, ask for a...I imitate Dan a lot. After the estimate, ask for a too low and a too high. <br /><br />Now I'm wondering how good at estimating students get with daily practice. Paging Mr Stadel...John Goldenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18212162438307044259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907702537884089718.post-85461929051021435662017-06-14T17:07:00.078-07:002017-06-14T17:07:00.078-07:00I like this idea a lot. This reminds me that I...I like this idea a lot. This reminds me that I've seen Graham do a 3-act, and instead of asking for individual estimates he gives a range, and then asks how many students have estimates within that range. But I always forget to do that. I've had students give me ranges, and I encourage them to settle on a single number, but now you've got me thinking that maybe I shouldn't. Not a too low and a too high, but more squeezed range.Joe Schwartzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02304083254248927187noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1907702537884089718.post-17849640597375546452017-06-14T15:16:51.709-07:002017-06-14T15:16:51.709-07:00Fascinating!
One thing this makes me think about ...Fascinating!<br /><br />One thing this makes me think about is some of the statistics books I've been reading about lately. In statistics, we don't just predict a single number, but we also try to quantify our confidence in the guess. And we also often report our predictions (is that what an estimate like this is?) with a range of responses.<br /><br />Sometimes, before a 3act, I've asked my students to make their best estimate, and they give a range. Some kids think that's cheating, but it's really a thoughtful response to uncertainty.<br /><br />What if we asked students to report a range of responses and their confidence in them? Or even if we asked them to provide a range of ranges?<br /><br />"I am 100% confident the bowl is worth between ... and ..."<br />"I am 75% confident the bowl is worth between ... and ..."<br />"I am 60% confident the bowl is worth between ... and ..."Michael Pershanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17046644130957574890noreply@blogger.com